Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

  Үзсэн тоо 6,664,892

The Game Theorists

3 сарын өмнө

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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of MNdown centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
FNAF, The FINAL Timeline ►►
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman

Mickey Lev
Mickey Lev Цагийн өмнө
When there's no concensus just a fancy conclusion.
Dream 4 цагийн өмнө
Why would I cheat
Mickey Lev
Mickey Lev Цагийн өмнө
why would you pretend to be dream
Shen Rui peng
Shen Rui peng 9 цагийн өмнө
Dream didn't cheat
Faye Harrington
Faye Harrington 19 цагийн өмнө
Random 23 цагийн өмнө
I have no idea what you just said
Shaurya Midas
Shaurya Midas Өдрийн өмнө
Dream Өдрийн өмнө
10 times
LogoAndMikey Өдрийн өмнө
POV, you walk into the comments to find dream stans: Where idiot at?
coconut Өдрийн өмнө
Awww dream no...
Minecraft Vs Roblox gaming
Minecraft Vs Roblox gaming Өдрийн өмнө
if dream would have seen this he would comment and say "no i did not cheat mat, no point in making this theory"
XxfairyxX UWU
XxfairyxX UWU Өдрийн өмнө
OMG lol i thought i was the only one who is looking for an answer if he cheated or not lol i thought i just didnt understand any thing he said but apparently all of us dont knoe the answer to the question hahaha
RedEyesTops Өдрийн өмнө
Make room for MathPath
Jonathan Högberg
Jonathan Högberg Өдрийн өмнө
Enderpearl 16% Dreams luck 4.7% The drop rate Almost 4 times as high! Blaze rod 69.2% Dreams luck 50% The drop rate Barely 1.4 times higher. If they looked up the Lucky speedruns: There can be a missfortune where they calculated wrong. And if they looked up al of his speedruns in general: There is either a verry lucky person or something is rigged. 42 to 262 Piglin barters and 211 to 305 is not impossible. I have for instance played minecraft ALOT and i am sometimes "The other way around" Verry Unlucky. I can almost bet that i have slain multiple times around up to ~30 blazes without reaching 7 rods. And pearl trading, last time i tried i had a total of almost 1 stacks of blocks, and reached a maximum of 5 pearls before i went enderman hunting. Does this sound fake? So my luck over al is under 50% lets say around 35% on blazerods? And pearl trades i bet is not good? 9x64= 576 gold! So 5 pearls on "at most 576" is under 1%. Also remember there is chances for more then one pearl per trade, i dont know what scale it is thoe. Is this fake? Conclusion: I am almost the other way around for what Dream reached in total with my totals i put together. Also if He/I/You have looting that raises droprates. I think there is a small chance that he is legit. But i do also sometimes question it. I myself dont like Dream that much but i still support the fact that there may be a chance that it is legit. And that there may have been something messed up. Your calculations says that he most surely cheats, but i think as i said there is a chance he didnt. Also dream have been looked up since he started Manhunting for rigged gameplays, so alot of people look at everything "fishy" and some draw hasty conclusions. Last thing to mention: I didnt speedrun, I played to reach the End, but to be sure to reach the End. And I still fail in luck? Last question: Is there maybie a chance that one piglin drops pearls more often then another piglin?
LaserAgentRyan Өдрийн өмнө
Bruh the short tension span comment it’s so true Edit statistically wouldn’t it be 60 or more heads
William Crossman
William Crossman Өдрийн өмнө
I like Mr Beast in the background buying every thing
Weaponxfan YT
Weaponxfan YT 2 өдрийн өмнө
I think flipping a coin and getting 60+ heads is more likely than the other option, as flipping a coin 10 times and getting 7 heads or more is equivalent to flipping a coin 100 times and getting 70+ heads. Edit: uh- nevermind 😅
Jasmine Gallagher
Jasmine Gallagher 2 өдрийн өмнө
idk about chris and his houseplants, but try mint. It has a lot of uses, grows like a weed, and can grow in just about anything, nearly anywhere as long as it has water. This for MatPat but also anyone who sucks at gardening
Game and Watch is Dumb
Game and Watch is Dumb 2 өдрийн өмнө
To the people saying he didn’t answer... that’s because there is no way to know.
Enzo Scrivener
Enzo Scrivener 2 өдрийн өмнө
this is how im revising for my maths gcse
Pikachu 2 өдрийн өмнө
Matpat sounded like izuku in the intro lol
Nicolae Flavius Gordan
Nicolae Flavius Gordan 2 өдрийн өмнө
not buzzyblade
not buzzyblade 2 өдрийн өмнө
u cant spawn ender pearls and theres no /spawn but theres /give LMAO
Chumy Something
Chumy Something Өдрийн өмнө
He never said that Dream SPAWNED the elder pearls, he said he altered and tampered with the elder pearl drop rate.
Jesse Derringer
Jesse Derringer 2 өдрийн өмнө
Simply put yes he did cheat
Jesse Derringer
Jesse Derringer 2 өдрийн өмнө
@Isaac McEvoy it is so insanely unlikely that it makes it impossible
Isaac McEvoy
Isaac McEvoy 2 өдрийн өмнө
can you prove it
Juels_Draws_Stuff ツ
Juels_Draws_Stuff ツ 2 өдрийн өмнө
11:27 uhh is no one gonna talk about how weird mat sounds right here? what is he doing here??? what is this sence from?? WHAT IS HAPPING?? wHaT iS tHe mEaNiNg oF lIfe?????????????????????????????//
Super Dude
Super Dude 2 өдрийн өмнө
Matpat: watch this will end up on the MNdown trending tab Matpat when he sees it on trending: 👁👄👁
Sir Noob
Sir Noob 2 өдрийн өмнө
7 times
morgan sage
morgan sage 2 өдрийн өмнө
Cozmo 081
Cozmo 081 2 өдрийн өмнө
i want a life theory channel.. it would be interesting
Walter Ruiz
Walter Ruiz 2 өдрийн өмнө
This is one of the videos that would be great to create as an exception to the video length rules of the channel (~18-24 mins per vídeo) because it needs time to explain the background yet it obviously rushed to analyze all the available math, there's no talk of the subsequent simulations to prove what paper was closer to reality, no analysis of the stimates themselves (nor an hypothetical case that exemplifies the algorithm) and that's a bit disappointing when your main reason to watch was expecting a more detailed detour of what everyone had already read. And to clarify, this is a good introduction to the dilemma, as GT wanted to stay neutral (even though they didn't directly answer the question of the thumbnail) I respect the final thoughs brought at the end (which are actually happening ATM according to other comments).
Jake Evara
Jake Evara 2 өдрийн өмнө
Dude, I just sat through your 23 minute spiel (and an ad-break) and you didn't say whether you think he faked his run or not. The title clearly promises an answer to the question. Not cool. 😣
Brenton 3 өдрийн өмнө
You say margarine very wrong.
VinnyRulesGaming 3 өдрийн өмнө
15:48 the literal definition of a theory lol
Ismail 3 өдрийн өмнө
Squid King
Squid King 3 өдрийн өмнө
"Did Dream cheat" Matpat: WE GET THERE WHEN WE GET THERE
WizardCrafterz 3 өдрийн өмнө
"...taking the world most relaxing game😃....and turning it into a war zone😮..."
Lyrical L
Lyrical L 3 өдрийн өмнө
Flipping a coin 10 times 7+ head
100_minutes 3 өдрийн өмнө
Zombie Zeus
Zombie Zeus 2 өдрийн өмнө
No One
No One 3 өдрийн өмнө
Legendary Comments
Legendary Comments 4 өдрийн өмнө
I have to say matpat is smart
reapeye 1
reapeye 1 4 өдрийн өмнө
ok so i know matpat didnt give any real answer but technically all he is really saying is that well.... he doesnt know the answer because its all luck. he was most likely pushed to make a video about this and when he knew that he couldnt have a definitive answer he just pushed it aside and tbh he right because its all about luck by the end of the day so it could go either way. in my opinion dream didnt cheat but if he did well thats on him. if anyone sees this either like if you agree orrrrrr like and then bombared me with comments calling me a dream stan lmao
Soloshort 3 өдрийн өмнө
It wasn’t down to his skills because dream does have skills but more down to amount of luck he got when trading with the hogglins.
Knight Artorias
Knight Artorias 4 өдрийн өмнө
If you want to hear the gospel, press read more..... Jesus died for our sins, he suffered and did nothing wrong. A crown of thorns was dug into his skull, was whipped 39 times, then was forced to carry a giant wooden cross up a hill. Then finally, was crucified and suffered the full wrath if God, he rose once more three days later. Believe this, and you will inherit eternal life.
6-1 Тамир.Т
6-1 Тамир.Т 4 өдрийн өмнө
dreams real
Margie Bruner
Margie Bruner 4 өдрийн өмнө
Wait bruh waittt hold up on one of these things he showed us one of them was not dreams it was one of drem he is a fake speed runner he posted one of his clips on her so that must not be dream clips wall at most of one is of dream in the drem
Carmaster the shooter master
Carmaster the shooter master 4 өдрийн өмнө
IM b ON 8:28
REASONS Apologetics
REASONS Apologetics 4 өдрийн өмнө
The second one
Beans 4 өдрийн өмнө
GeoSquare and Dream: *fighting about a videogame* Commentary channels: He cheated Stans: He didn't! MatPat: But why?
Isabelle Nanney
Isabelle Nanney 4 өдрийн өмнө
I think... it's a no? He proves that Dream's arguments are more logical than the Minecraft speedrunning team's so I assume that he doesn't think Dream cheated :/
morbideddie 4 өдрийн өмнө
Correction, he asserts Dreams arguments are credible, then avoids the question. Dream cheated, it’s not really in contention by anyone who understands probability.
Marceline Kibukila
Marceline Kibukila 4 өдрийн өмнө
Joe Enderman
Joe Enderman 4 өдрийн өмнө
I know that sometimes it is hard to pick a side on an issue because you don't want to offend anyone, but if the issue is a "right and wrong" issue rather than "right and left" you should be willing to condemn or justify the involved parties. If Dream is innocent, then why leave the slightest smudge on a good man's credibility? What did he do to offend you? If he cheated, then why skirt around the issue? No one likes a cheater, and even more so, they don't like people who support and allow cheating.
Madkrusher 4 өдрийн өмнө
Alpha 4 өдрийн өмнө
I bet matpat can solve who dream is
Smart gamer 123
Smart gamer 123 4 өдрийн өмнө
100 coin flips
Aloke Schlichtmann
Aloke Schlichtmann 5 өдрийн өмнө
So did dream cheat or not
Duke Smite
Duke Smite Өдрийн өмнө
Welp dream just cheat on speedrunning somehow he was caught for cheating and lying cus dream actually deleted this response vid for lying cus the drop chance is insane which is fake so dream iust lie and fake speedrunning
Chumy Something
Chumy Something Өдрийн өмнө
Noriaki Kakyoin
Noriaki Kakyoin 4 өдрийн өмнө
@dabudaby "Correction, he asserts Dreams arguments are credible, then avoids the question. Dream cheated, it’s not really in contention by anyone who understands probability." - morbideddie
dabudaby 4 өдрийн өмнө
probably not because he proves that Dream's arguments are more logical than the Minecraft speedrunning team's
Chungus Toad
Chungus Toad 5 өдрийн өмнө
I personally don’t like dream but I don’t think he cheats
Duke Smite
Duke Smite Өдрийн өмнө
Welp dream just cheat on speedrunning somehow he was caught for cheating and lying cus dream actually deleted this response vid for lying cus the drop chance is insane which is fake so dream iust lie and fake speedrunning
Chungus Toad
Chungus Toad 5 өдрийн өмнө
@Justin Emilio Belchez then I would most likely believe you
Justin Emilio Belchez
Justin Emilio Belchez 5 өдрийн өмнө
What if I tell you, he does?
sonia mckenzie
sonia mckenzie 5 өдрийн өмнө
im back i think if u flip a coin 10 times ur more likely to get heads 7 times
sonia mckenzie
sonia mckenzie 5 өдрийн өмнө
oh no i think u broke Robert lmao ok ill stop talking :(
Leeland DeLeeuw
Leeland DeLeeuw 6 өдрийн өмнө
I came here to read the comments from dreamm stans who ddn't watch the video but go mad anyway.
Ragul Karthik
Ragul Karthik 6 өдрийн өмнө
So no one gonna talk about me beast buying a pizza
Mehrunes 6 өдрийн өмнө
True, game based on random generator world should never become a speedrun
morbideddie 5 өдрийн өмнө
@Mehrunes while yes it can be an RNG fest that’s the same for pretty much most speed games. Golden eye and ocarina of time are two of the most famous speed games of all time and they are very heavily RNG dependent in some sections. Looking at the boards most of the top spots are filled by known runners who are skilled and respected. Give a god seed to a less skilled player and they won’t turn that into a wr. Plus there are loads of categories that focus on different aspects of the game. SSG let’s you practice the same map massively reducing the RNG elements. FSG gives you a god seed each time so you can get the on the fly thinking of a RSG but without the lottery aspect being as strong. There is something for everyone but I think the random world aspects are one of the more unique aspects of the game that make it less focused on execution and more on game knowledge and quick thinking.
Mehrunes 6 өдрийн өмнө
​@morbideddie this's just my personal opinion. You're absolutely right, MC still requires skills, reflex, and knowledge. But the Random generated world makes the run become an RNG fest. Unlucky seed can add 1-3 minutes to the run And every action also have its RNG the best-skilled player can be beaten by pure luck. And when you're too lucky, the run became suspicious That's the reason why MC not my favorite speedrun. But I do enjoy Speedrun VS Hunter
morbideddie 6 өдрийн өмнө
Why? Speedrunning isn’t just about mechanical execution, routing the world on the fly requires tons of skill and game knowledge that’s completely valid.
Emperor Akatsuki
Emperor Akatsuki 6 өдрийн өмнө
10 times 6 heads =100 times 60 heads 100 times 70 heads = 10 times 7 heads the latter has more luck
Emperor Akatsuki
Emperor Akatsuki 5 өдрийн өмнө
​@morbideddie Ooh O.O, so that's how it works, good to know(~ ̄▽ ̄)~
morbideddie 6 өдрийн өмнө
The law of large numbers goes counter to this, the larger the set of trials the less likely we are to see significant changes from the average.
KK Puffin
KK Puffin 6 өдрийн өмнө
what red button? I only see a gray one.
just a random Minecraft PS4 player
just a random Minecraft PS4 player 6 өдрийн өмнө
OrdinaryBear 6 өдрийн өмнө
Question : "Did Dream Cheat ?" Answer : "You know, luck is not cool"
Patricia Talosig
Patricia Talosig 6 өдрийн өмнө
dream dint fake i tryed all of his the tricks mlg water
AUSTIN SCOTT 6 өдрийн өмнө
is this a joke?
Patricia Talosig
Patricia Talosig 6 өдрийн өмнө
and the haybale and ladder and boat clutch evrything 😒😒😒😒😒😒😤😤😤😤😤
The Game podcaster
The Game podcaster 6 өдрийн өмнө
Prince Awesome
Prince Awesome 6 өдрийн өмнө
Flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads 7 of them I think
-Lemon Muffin-
-Lemon Muffin- 7 өдрийн өмнө
For the heads and tails thing I chose 7- Dunno if it's correct-
superbas gamingYT
superbas gamingYT 7 өдрийн өмнө
Idk matpat but make a theory on friday night funkin
Archana Gupta
Archana Gupta 7 өдрийн өмнө
flip 100 times is more likely
M0bZ0Mb!3 7 өдрийн өмнө
It's sad to hear all these comments saying this is clickbait, it's like mattpatt isn't allowed to give you his ideas and talk about things that interest him and people just want the theory and conclusion.
BRUH bruh bruh BRUH bruh bruh
BRUH bruh bruh BRUH bruh bruh 7 өдрийн өмнө
69.2 percent nice
Dan 5
Dan 5 6 өдрийн өмнө
C0C0N8T 7 өдрийн өмнө
Its not his fault for cheating. Its the GAMES fault for involving too much RNG LMAOOOO
Techno 3 өдрийн өмнө
AUSTIN SCOTT 6 өдрийн өмнө
It's Dream's fault because he didn't say anything about it. You wanna mod the game to have better rng, fine. But if you want to lie and pretend you didn't, that's a problem.
Royally Challenged
Royally Challenged 7 өдрийн өмнө
Everyone is in the comments like, "He didn't say anything cuz dream cheated." I think it's hilarious that they all say it the same way, too. "He didn't say he cheated bc he didn't want the dream stans hating on him." LMFAO I'm dying over her
gay jail
gay jail 7 өдрийн өмнө
He cheated. (I'm 100% sure about that.) Legitimately everyone NOT close to him says he cheated. Also i'm pretty sure he didn't use the proper minecraft resource? (Or something like that, I watched that one math dudes video.)
ΔΗΜΗΤΡΗΣ ΜΠΑΝΤΗΣ 7 өдрийн өмнө
i am soo dump i did not understand anything in this video
Dondlo 7 өдрийн өмнө
Hey Game Theory, Matpat here. Did Dream fake his speedrun?
CaptainCustard 8 өдрийн өмнө
my teacher told me flipping a coin is actually 51/49 not much of a difference but its something
Foxy The Fox
Foxy The Fox 5 өдрийн өмнө
Kinda as if it's more likely that it comes from the side it was flipping which is usually heads
tutacat 8 өдрийн өмнө
"its not a simple apple to oranges comparison"
Iskra Tatomir
Iskra Tatomir 8 өдрийн өмнө
10 times bc its 7 with is 10 less for the 100 times
Rick I Sanchez
Rick I Sanchez 8 өдрийн өмнө
100 Times 60 had because 10 times 7had it's almost the same the only Thing is missing is a 0. that makes 10 Times 7 had almost the same as 100times 70 had PS I didn't had al Ferry good school 😅
o.o 8 өдрийн өмнө
I come back to this channel after a couple years of not watching it, and I waste 23 minutes and 29 seconds of my life just to be told about a sponsor from skillshare
GreekSoldier20 8 өдрийн өмнө
yeah is hard speedrun kill ender dragon idk dream are cheating or not
fnaf the girl Victoria Victoria fnaf
fnaf the girl Victoria Victoria fnaf 8 өдрийн өмнө
Hi :)
Xander Castaneda
Xander Castaneda 8 өдрийн өмнө
Why didn't you give us the truth matpat?
LaserM 8 өдрийн өмнө
I admit, the learning experience is evn to watch this, becouse I am not from America, UK, bla bla bla, you get the point.
blessed_boio 8 өдрийн өмнө
So basically, at the end hes trying to hide the facts and data to explain speedrunning..... this isn't even an analysis its just a grab for views.
Yisus HC
Yisus HC 8 өдрийн өмнө
Pretty sure ibxtoycat beat minecraft in under 5 Min but it was on bedrock so idk if it counts
AUSTIN SCOTT 6 өдрийн өмнө
They played on a set seed, which is a different category to the main one
morbideddie 8 өдрийн өмнө
Bedrock and set seed so not really comparable to a Java RSG run.
Elio Formicone
Elio Formicone 8 өдрийн өмнө
The Video Title: did dream cheat!? Matpat: i think ill answer 10500 questions except the one question
ItsWilliam 8 өдрийн өмнө
everyone: so did he cheat? matpat: yesn't
8 өдрийн өмнө
everyone like this video so it goes on the youtube trending tab.
Marvin Xian Soroy-soroy
Marvin Xian Soroy-soroy 8 өдрийн өмнө
dream made an face reveal???
Nathan Zamora
Nathan Zamora 8 өдрийн өмнө
Flipping a coin 100 times
DANA ESPINEL 8 өдрийн өмнө
0:12 Mr.beast: so today were wiping out 5 Stores full of stuff to donate!
*.Shooting Star.*
*.Shooting Star.* 9 өдрийн өмнө
Yeah thats why i started watching game theory cause i suck at math XDDD And i am not smart enough to look into tiny details
Escanor 9 өдрийн өмнө
"My brain hurts.."
jada cormier
jada cormier 9 өдрийн өмнө
i think what hes trying to say is that its pretty much impossible to reach a conclusion without definitive proof that he cheated (like seeing the mods in his mod folder or whatever) because pretty much the main point of minecraft is that its randomized and most things like random bartering are based on luck
JsASlayer Epic gamer
JsASlayer Epic gamer 9 өдрийн өмнө
Mat is the most not boomer I’ve seen
Nathaniel Bull
Nathaniel Bull 9 өдрийн өмнө
matpat did not make a conclusion but by the end the it looked like the proof was saying dream did not cheat
Poginthechat 9 өдрийн өмнө
Me: DO YOU THINK HE CHEATED OR NOT Matpat: Calm down i will show you the binomial physics
Iktear Ahmed
Iktear Ahmed 9 өдрийн өмнө
We : so did he fake it or not? Matpat : e=mc2
Xpepper 1562
Xpepper 1562 9 өдрийн өмнө
Flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads 7 times is mor lucky
Mongo Magus
Mongo Magus 9 өдрийн өмнө
and what does this proof?
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